Scary Mary

I love Mary Poppins. Imagine it as a horror movie and this as the trailer. Enjoy.

The Science of Global Warning

I came across this essay this morning. It's a nice to response to "global warming doubters" about the way scientific inquiry works.

Not So Sure About Global Warming? Some Thoughts On Scientific Uncertainty

by ClimateLurker

Thu Jul 26, 2007 at 12:14:39 PM PDT

I've been reading a great book called Uncertain Science... Uncertain World by Henry Pollack - a readable and engaging discussion of decision-making in the face of uncertainty. Pollack argues that decision-makers use uncertainty as an excuse for inaction, when in fact it should be a stimulus for creativity and progress.

This is a huge, and hugely important, issue. What is scientific uncertainty? Why are scientists so cautious? How sure do you have to be that something will happen to act on the possibility? And what does this all mean for climate change?

We don't give it much thought, but we take action in the face of uncertainty all the time. We're not sure we'll get into a car accident, but there's a small chance we will so we wear our seat belts. And though we may never need it, we buy major medical insurance. We act on these possibilities, though they're unlikely, because the consequences, if they occur, are severe.

Yet scientists are held to a different standard. Some people feel that if scientists aren't 100 percent certain about something, there's no need to take action - even when there is a 90 percent chance that inaction will lead to catastrophe. Why?

My colleague Bill Chameides used a great analogy to explain this in a Webcast for teachers. (The section on scientific uncertainty begins about 3 minutes into the video. Side note: the full video is a great intro to climate change science.) He says that some people think of scientific knowledge as a house of cards - if one piece is taken away, the whole house comes down. That is, one uncertainty about climate change means none of the science can be trusted.

In fact, scientific knowledge is more like a jigsaw puzzle than a house of cards - a jigsaw puzzle where you don't have the box top. As you fit the pieces together, a picture begins to emerge. You may not know all the details, but enough pieces are in place to leave no doubt what the big picture is.

In a recent essay [PDF], Henry Pollack made another analogy:

There is a tendency to focus on the weakness of the parts rather than the strength of the whole, supposing that if a single piece of evidence can be discredited, the entire construct will fall like a house of cards. In fact, discrediting a single line of evidence is more like snipping a strand in a net hammock—the hammock continues to be supported by the many strands that remain intact. The scientific evidence for climate change in the natural world is compelling in its totality although individual pieces of the story may indeed be open to some question.

That's where we are now with climate change. The big picture is clear, the hammock is up. The debate is only about individual strands and pieces here and there. Just because scientists don't know everything about a particular topic doesn't mean they don't know anything about it.

In our everyday lives we act based on incomplete information as a matter of course - to the point that we don't even think about it. But for scientists, uncertainty is top of mind. We're trained to notice what's certain and what's not so we can design useful studies. That's why we spell out in such exquisite (or excruciating!) detail what we don't know about any given topic. And that's why the IPCC report (indeed, any scientific report) uses such careful language. For non-specialists, all that careful language can obscure aspects of a topic that are extremely well understood and no longer under debate.

Unlike a car accident, which is serious but unlikely, global warming is both serious and likely. In fact, the clear picture that has emerged from decades of research is that it's already happening. We must act now to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The challenge facing us can seem overwhelming, but we can do it.

So the next time someone tells you that global warming isn't a certainty so there's no reason to act, ask them what the probability of an accident has to be before they'll wear a seat belt.


Further Reading

• Obviously, Pollack's book and essay [PDF]
• Stephen Schneider's discussions of uncertainty
• Various posts on RealClimate. Most of them are technical (ice sheets, aerosols, etc). A fine example of the philosophical aspect is their post on climate change ethics, particularly the bit about Henry Shue's work

A Letter to the Washington Post

In light of my recent rant about national anthems, I had to share this letter to the editor of the our local news rag. It seems I'm not the only one who gets annoyed by poorly rendered anthems.


Treat the Anthem With Respect

Friday, July 27, 2007; A20

Come on, Nationals -- get the national anthem right!

We stood at attention before Sunday's game and were subjected to yet another embarrassing mutilation of "The Star-Spangled Banner."

This has become an all too common occurrence before Washington Nationals games.

The "American Idol" approach may be acceptable for other portions of the game, but the national anthem (especially when sung in the nation's capital) must not be butchered.

We humbly suggest a different approach: Pick a few members of our fine military bands to share the workload. There are many highly able people who know exactly how the anthem is to be sung and who would bring honor to the Nationals.

The fans attending the games deserve better.

DEAN HESS

STEPHEN HUNT

Lady Book Notes: Book Review: When the Nile Runs Red

Some of you may be interested in this Christian fiction book that I've just reviewed. It will be available in September 2007.

Lady Book Notes: Book Review: When the Nile Runs Red

Back from Bracebridge

Last week began as an ordinary week in my life. That changed with one phone call on Tuesday afternoon when Dave learned that his 91-year-old grandmother had died. Or, as we say in The Salvation Army, Nana was "promoted to glory." She had been ill with lung cancer for several months, so we knew her time on earth would be ending soon.

We left home early on Wednesday morning, around 7:00 AM. We got back about 3:30 AM today.

We spent Wednesday evening in Niagara Falls, Ontario and had a very pleasant time. Since tourism is way down, we were able to get a hotel room overlooking both sets of waterfalls. That night we enjoyed a lovely candlelight dinner (including escargot) in our room and watched the light show over the falls.

The Maid of the Mist heads toward the rainbow.

On Thursday we traveled the rest of the way to Bracebridge, Ontario, a lovely little town in the Muskoka region. After a quick visit to Port Carling, where I just had to buy some pottery, we spent most of Friday and Saturday attending to funeral business (viewings, funeral and committal services, etc.), then departed for home at about 4:30 PM on Saturday. Eleven hours later, we arrived home. In the 92-hour period from Wednesday through this morning, we traveled approximately 1,400 miles by car.

Aside from the opportunity to say au revoir to Nana, the greatest highlight of our time away was the opportunity to reconnect with many family members and long-time friends. We shared several meals with assorted family members. Like all Sears family meals, they included lots of laughter, family news and good stories. I missed Cathy's tale about her nearly-missed flight from Calgary, so I'll have to catch up on that one the next time we're together. We also caught up with some friends whom we haven't seen in far too many years. Those were also precious moments.

It's a beautiful thing when the years fade away and family and friends can visit with as much ease as if they'd just seen each other the day before. While the principle purpose of our gathering was to bid farewell to a much-loved family member, we were given wonderful opportunities to joyfully renew and strengthen personal bonds. I think that's exactly what Nana would have wanted us to do in her memory.

Visitors to Port Carling are greeted by this impressive mural

comprised of thousand of photos depicting the town's history.

Anything New With You?

What's new in your life? The biggest new thing in my life is that I got a new boss this week. He actually arrived on my first day of vacation, so we finally connected a few days ago when I returned to work. I spent my first several days back getting used to his way of operating. He's a nice guy, energetic and full of ideas. Things are changing rapidly there.

What else is new? My niece, Krista, had a baby girl about a month ago. Now I'm a grand-aunt three times over. I've seen one picture of the baby, whose name is Campbell. I may actually see her live and in person if she brings her parents to my mother's house for Thanksgiving.

My sister and her family (which includes Krista and hers) plan to travel from Kentucky to Pennsylvania for Thanksgiving. Dave, the boys and I will go up at least for that day and possibly for a couple of days. We'll have to see what our work schedules permit. My brother and his wife would like to come from Maine, but they're not sure what their schedules will be like. They are still settling into their new positions at DHQ. It would be great if we could all get together. The last time my brother, sister, mother and I were all together was eight years ago at Krista's first wedding. It would be perfect if Christian and his family, and Tracy, my other niece on that side of the family can come too. I think the last time the entire extended family was together was at Christian's wedding ten years ago. Unfortunately, my mother was very ill at the time and didn't enjoy the event nearly as much as the rest of us.

Other news? Jonathan is still seeing quite a lot of a certain young lady to whom he has not yet introduced us. They're going out 2-4 times a week now. We've seen her, but he said they were not quite ready to "meet the parents" at that time, so he didn't introduce us. Dave and I could only shake our heads and smile. What a guy!

There's not much news from Joshua. He's in Atlanta today for a major drum corps competition. If the Crossmen place in the top four in this afternoon's competition, they will get to play again tonight in a field that includes the top eight corps in the country. I'd like to see them do it, but it will be tough. After last week's competition in Allentown, Pennsylvania, the Crossmen and three other corps, which ranked 12 - 15, were separated by a total of 1.05 points.

Aside from those few items, life here is pretty much the same as ever. Is there anything new happening in your life?

Time With Family

Dave and I are now enjoying the last night of our vacation. One of the nice things about this trip is that we've gotten to visit with several members of my family.

We started by visiting my brother and his wife in Erie, Pennsylvania. We got there just in time to see them before they drove up to their new home in Portland, Maine.

Then, we visited my nephew, Christian, in Norwich, Connecticut. We conned him into attending a drum corps show with us. He got to say hello to Joshua after the show. Joshua couldn't talk long, however, because he wanted to get through the supper line before all the food disappeared.

Finally, we visited Mom and Paul in Leola, Pennsylvania. It's been several months since we've seen them, so it was nice to stay over for a night. We will be coming back to see them again in late August.

Overall, even though we spent approximately half of our vacation working very hard, it's been an enjoyable time. But it's time to go home now - Dave and I have seen enough drum corps shows in the past two weeks - seven - to last us awhile. We'll get our next fix in August when we start helping the Oakton Marching Cougars prepare for their fall marching band season. We'd better get plenty of rest before then.

Independence Day Reflection: The Agony of National Anthems

Some of the most excruciating moments I’ve endured throughout my life have been listening to various renditions of the Canadian and American national anthems. These moments typically occur at athletic events and drum corps competitions.

One such moment took place about twelve years ago at a minor league baseball game in Jamestown, New York. A gentleman in his sixties, with a vocal range of perhaps 6 notes, tried to sing the American national anthem, The Star Spangled Banner. Dave and I, realizing that, for all we knew, we were sitting by the man’s family or best friends, tried our darnedest to hold in our laughter. It was a struggle that was doomed from the start.

Last week, at a drum and bugle corps competition in Erie, Pennsylvania, a Men’s Glee Club tried to sing both the Canadian and American anthems. I believe O Canada took the worst beating in that affair. At times, the tune was barely recognizable. I must give the men points, however, for diction and articulation, because I understood every word, if not the tune, they sang.

I think the worst such event in my life occurred last night at another drum corps event in Bristol, Rhode Island. The recorded version of O Canada that was played over the loudspeaker system is quite possibly the worst arrangement of that song that I have ever heard. Dave, Christian and I looked at each other, smirked and rolled our eyes. Little did we suspect that the anthem ritual was about to descend to the deepest, darkest depths of musical experience any of us had ever known.

The Star Spangled Banner was presented by, of all things, a bagpipe band from Scotland. Those of you who know me pretty well know that I loath bagpipes. I can’t imagine what those seemingly nice Scottish guys, dressed to the nines in their colorful kilts, have against Americans that they had to bring their implements of torture clear across the ocean to inflict them upon us in person! When they began playing the anthem, it was incredibly difficult to pick out the tune. What I thought was an introduction turned out to have been the first four bars of the tune. I realized that when I picked out part of the next four bars, surprised that they had already gotten that far into the song! Upon reflection, it seems that they were either

• playing in the key of M, or
• trying to circumnavigate the entire Circle of Fifths by changing keys every four bars.

It was excruciating, to say the least.

Over the years, and I've lived quite a few of them, I've heard many other versions of The Star Spangled Banner that should have been called The Star Mangled Banner. If I could be granted one wish on this Independence Day, it would be that all renditions of national anthems at public events be required, at a minimum, to be

• tasteful,
• in tune,
• up to tempo and
• less than three minutes in duration

Such a proclamation would be worth celebrating every day of the year. Well - it would be worth celebrating at sporting and other competitive events anyway.

FDR Presidential Library and Family Home

Dave and I toured Franklin Delano Roosevelt's family home and presidential library yesterday. It's a lovely estate high above the Hudson River. The "mansion" is not lavish by today's standards, but it would have been something special 100 years ago.

Notes From Giants Stadium

On Saturday, June 30, the Crossmen and several other corps performed at Giants Stadium. Since Dave wasn't feeling well that evening, he stayed behind in our RV and I rode in the "vollie van" (volunteer van). We left our housing site at 4:15 PM and arrived at the stadium at 5:45 PM. Parking at the stadium complex was a royal pain. The Meadowlands complex that houses the stadium was also hosting the New Jersey State Fair. As soon as we passed the fairgrounds, we encountered the remnants of that day's flea market. Finally, just before approaching the race track, we found the parking lots that had been set aside for the drum corps show.

As we arrived at the stadium, the kids donned their uniforms on the buses. As soon as they emerged from the buses and picked up their hats and instruments, they lined up at attention. Once they were all assembled, they marched into the stadium in an orderly formation. In the meantime, the food crew prepared a hand-cart with water and gatorade, which would accompany the corps into the stadium, so that they could be well hydrated before they performed. Once that was done, we got the previously prepared food trays out of the reefer and put them into the oven, and set up the serving table. Just before entering the stadium to watch our show, one other foodie and I checked on the items in the oven, stirred them and adjusted the oven temperature.

Immediately after the performance, the foodies came back to the food truck and put dinner on the tables. That night's supper was IBS, a hodge podge of leftovers that included chili, meatball subs, ziti, macaroni salad, chicken fingers and french fries. We also had some brownies for dessert. And of course, the standard PB&J table was set for those who don't eat real food. That table is set out at every meal and snack, including breakfast. The gatorade table was also set out.

Upon changing out of their uniforms, the locusts kids descended on the food. Since we had no running water, we had to take the empty pots and pans and pile them into our three industrial-sized sinks for washing the next morning. All three sinks were overflowing by the end of the meal. The good thing, though, was that we had used most of the leftovers.

After finishing their meal, the kids split up and did various things. The snare drummers found a place between the food and equipment trucks to form a circle and rehearse. Some of the trumpet and mellophone players practiced near the buses. Some of the guard members found a place to spread out between our trucks and those of the corps next to us (the Boston Crusaders) to rehearse. And a section leader took one of the rookie guard members aside for some one-on-one instruction. She pounded out a beat on a woodblock while the rookie marched. After a moment, the leader stopped her, corrected some technical flaw in her marching technique, and went through the same drill again. I don't know how long they did this. By this time, it was about 10:00 PM.

Finally, everything was packed and the convoy pulled out of the stadium at approximately 10:50 PM. We arrived back at our housing site at 12:15 and everybody went straight to bed.

Our Week With the Crossmen

Dave and I spent just under a week serving on the food crew for the Crossmen. Our greatest accomplishment was demonstrating our prowess as world-class dishwashers. Let me tell you, feeding 135 corps members, plus 30-40 staff and 10-12 volunteers four times a day is not restful. In addition to washing, rinsing and drying hundreds of pots and pans, we chopped scores of vegetables, prepared thousands of french fries and chicken nuggets, re-filled dozens of ketchup, mustard and salad dressing jars, replenished paper plate and plastic utensil supplies, and boiled LOTS of pasta. We did lots of other stuff too, but you've gotten the idea by now. Oh yeah, we also took delivery of a load of groceries for the Crossmen and for the Cadets (our sister corps). Dave spent much of that time arranging the perishables in the refrigerator/freezer, while I helped lug non-perishables to their proper trucks, one for us and the other for them. To give you some idea of the scope of that operation, it took the delivery guy two hours to unload his truck. We, of course, had to sort and store it.

This is the truck in which Dave and I lived when we weren't sleeping in the RV (something we didn't do very much). It's a full-size transport truck that's been outfitted as a canteen.


The meal schedule varies wildly from day to day, depending on what time our show begins in the evening, how long it will take to get from our housing site to the show site and whether we have to travel after the show. There is very little down time between serving one meal and preparing the next. Actually, someone is usually starting the next meal as others are clearing the serving tables. The truck is equipped with a generator, so we can run lights and ovens and feed the corps on-site after a performance. We ate at about 9:00 PM last night, in the parking lot of Giants Stadium (Eli Manning didn't come to the show - he has no idea what he missed). Unfortunately, we have no access to running water for road meals, so all of the pots and pans from a post-show road meal have to be washed early the next morning, before breakfast.

Now, some Crossmen terminology:
Reefer - no, it is not something one smokes illegally. It is the refrigerator/freezer unit.
IBS - no, it is not Irritable Bowel Syndrome. It is Ice Box Special - a fancy term for leftovers.
EPL - Eat/Pack/Load - this is what happens during the snack before a show, or the meal before moving to another venue. A 45-minute period is usually designated for the completion of all these activities.
Bones - the mascot who occasionally appears at shows dressed in a uniform and cape.

The corps does the bulk of its traveling at night, after shows. Last week, we moved with the corps three times and arrived at our housing sites anywhere from 1:30 - 3:00 AM. We were always ahead of the corps, which travels in a caravan of 9 vehicles: four buses, one food truck, one equipment truck, one RV, one concession truck and one van. They typically arrived anywhere from 15 minutes to an hour after we did.

The next two photos show Joshua during pre-show warm-ups. The horn line warms-ups together for awhile, then breaks into sections.



Here's Joshua "At the Gate," waiting for the signal to stand up, put on his hat and take the field.

Dave and I agree that the past week was incredibly busy, but fulfilling. If Joshua travels with the Crossmen again, we'll probably sign up for another stint on the food truck.